The Dutch Elections and Why They May Matter?
When you sit back and look at the calendar of key events for markets this year, you might find yourself asking, “Are we at the Olympics?" To add to this, there is also a possibility of an Italian election being called earlier than the proposed May 2018 date.
Calendar of key market events in 2017
After the fallout, last year from Brexit and the market euphoria which swept across stock markets when Trump won the US Presidential election, it would seem global populism and a disillusionment with the political class is alive. Importantly the first gauge of this and how markets may react will occur in the coming weeks.
The elections being held on the 15th March in the Netherlands, will be the first test for Europe this year. This sees the populist Geert Wilders, leader of the Party for Freedom and the current conservative Prime Minister Mark Rutte, of the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy, likely to be the main characters in any government formed. Interestingly, Dutch politics has developed into a highly-fragmented scene, where if any party wishes to form government they may require a coalition of up to four or five political parties - something which is different to Australia.
This fragmented political environment in the home of windmills and wooden shoes, has grown since the early 2000’s and has been largely exploited by Geert Wilders. Wilders has campaigned on an anti-Islam and anti-immigration policy by stirring popular opinion over recent terrorist attacks across Europe and the mass movement of Syrian refugees. He has also threatened to close Dutch boarders and to leave the Euro if he forms government. Now current polling indicates that the incumbent Rutte, will more than likely be able to form government, however one thing that 2016 showed us is that you can’t rely on initial polling!
The ramifications if Wilders was to gain a level of influence or control, may provide us with a barometer for how other election results across Europe might play out this year.